In just about every NFL Mock Draft, analysts are predicting that Clemson’s Deshaun Watson, North Carolina’s Mitch Trubisky, and Notre Dame’s DeShone Kizer will be the three quarterbacks selected in the first-round of the 2017 NFL Draft. There has been much debate about which quarterback will be selected first, but this is the wrong conversation. Analysts and NFL scouts need to reevaluate this quarterback class and determine who can lead a franchise. Deshaun Watson is the only quarterback that has demonstrated the ability to lead, win and perform against talented defenses, making him the only quarterback worthy choice of a first-round pick. When drafting a first-round quarterback, teams look for a leader to build their franchise around. Deshaun Watson is that guy. He is a strong leader and has performed well against top defenses. Watson led his team to a national title, two conference championships, and a 28-2 record as a starter. Against top 25 pass defenses, Watson averaged 303 yards passing, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. In the two national championship games against a strong Alabama opponent, Watson had a combined 825 passing yards and 8 total touchdowns, proving he can perform under extraordinary pressure against the best defenses. Unlike Watson, Trubisky struggled against top 25 pass defenses. He averaged 194 pass yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions against these teams last season, making me question his ability to perform against an NFL defense. Trubisky showed considerable promise in his junior season, but there was not enough production against strong defensive talent to convince me he can succeed in the NFL.
In Trubisky’s sophomore season, Marquise Williams beat him out for the starting spot. Williams was an undrafted free agent in 2016 and was recently dropped by the Green Bay Packers. If Trubisky could not beat out Williams a year ago, I would hesitate building a team around him. Only two quarterbacks with one year of starter experience have been first-round draft picks in the past ten years. One was Heisman winner and national champion, Cam Newton, who Trubisky cannot compare to. The second is Mark Sanchez, who has struggled in his NFL career. With limited experience and lack of production against top talent, teams should not be confident in Trubisky’s ability to become their franchise quarterback. My biggest concern with DeShone Kizer is his leadership and ability to win. He led Notre Dame to a 4-8 season last year, something that has only happened once in Irish history since 1963. A four-win season is unheard of for a historically successful Notre Dame football program. It would be the fewest wins for any quarterback taken in the first-round since 2001, when the Washington Redskins drafted Patrick Ramsey, a career that only lasted 7 years with a 10-14 record as a starter. Kizer also struggled against top opponents, going 2-5 against AP Top 25 opponents in his career with wins coming against Temple and Georgia Tech; two teams that did not end up in the top 25 by the end of the season. In his final season, he averaged 194 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception against top 25 pass defenses. Kizer’s inability to win and compete against the top teams should concern anyone looking to draft him early. Deshaun Watson is the only quarterback that has demonstrated the capabilities of a franchise quarterback. Scouts and GMs should take a second look at these three quarterbacks and either trade for Deshaun Watson or look to the free agent market. Mitch Trubisky and DeShone Kizer are not worth a first-round pick.
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August KlattSenior at the University of Michigan studying Economics and Applied Statistics CategoriesArchives |